Written by: Stephen Hsu
Primary Source: Information Processing
SBNation: … The chance of a lesser-rated recruit being drafted in the first round is nowhere close to what it is for a blue-chipper.
Consider this: While four- and five-star recruits made up just 9.4 percent of all recruits, they accounted for 55 percent of the first and second round. Any blue-chip prospect has an excellent shot of going on to be a top pick, if he stays healthy and out of trouble.
For those who don’t like percentages, here are some more intuitive breakdowns based on the numbers from the entire 2014 draft:
A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).
A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).
A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).
A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).
Compare to standardized testing and intellectual achievements later in life:
Success, Ability, and all that: … In the SMPY study probability of having published a literary work or earned a patent was increasing with ability even within the top 1%. The “IQ over 120 doesn’t matter” meme falls apart if one measures individual likelihood of success, as opposed to the total number of individuals at, e.g., IQ 120 vs IQ 145 who have achieved some milestone. The base population of the former is 100 times that of the latter!