Written by: Stephen Hsu
Primary Source: Information Processing
Highly recommended podcast: Tim Harford (FT) at the LSE. Among the topics covered are Keynes’ and Irving Fisher’s performance as investors, and Philip Tetlock’s IARPA-sponsored Good Judgement Project, meant to evaluate expert prediction of complex events. Project researchers (psychologists) find that “actively open-minded thinkers” (those who are willing to learn from those that disagree with them) perform best. Unfortunately there are no real “super-predictors” — just some who are better than others, and have better calibration (accurate confidence estimates).
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