Written by: Stephen Hsu
Primary Source: Information Processing
Highly recommended podcast: Tim Harford (FT) at the LSE. Among the topics covered are Keynes’ and Irving Fisher’s performance as investors, and Philip Tetlock’s IARPA-sponsored Good Judgement Project, meant to evaluate expert prediction of complex events. Project researchers (psychologists) find that “actively open-minded thinkers” (those who are willing to learn from those that disagree with them) perform best. Unfortunately there are no real “super-predictors” — just some who are better than others, and have better calibration (accurate confidence estimates).
Latest posts by Stephen Hsu (see all)
- Talking Ta-Nehisi Coates, Seriously? - October 19, 2017
- Blade Runner 2049: Demis Hassabis (Deep Mind) interviews director Villeneuve - October 9, 2017
- Information Theory of Deep Neural Nets: “Information Bottleneck” - October 7, 2017