Shift Commission on Work, Workers, and Technology (New America Foundation and Bloomberg)

I spent yesterday at this event. If you look carefully you can see Tim O’Reilly in one of the photos below. New America and Bloomberg are convening the Shift Commission on Work, Workers, and Technology to bring together a community of leaders from different disciplines — technology, business, policy, civil society, academia, and others — who want to understand …

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Decoding Genius podcast

I’m interviewed in episode 2 of this podcast. ABOUT THE DECODING GENIUS PODCAST What exactly is a Genius? Are they born that way or can you become a genius? The world is now so interconnected that a single genius, whether a young Aussie creating mind-controlled machines or a ten year old building a high tech …

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Low Earth Orbit from your backyard? (startup Vector Space Systems)

It’s great to see innovation and competition in space launch technology. These small launchers from startup Vector Space Systems can put 50-100kg payloads (e.g., micro satellites) into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) for $2-3 million. There are obvious military applications for the rapid placement (or replacement) of satellites. For example, see A2AD Fait Accompli? Commercial applications are …

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Joe Rogan interviews Dan Bilzerian

This is one of the best interviews I’ve heard in a long time. Warning: NSFW. Joe Rogan interviews professional poker player and social media icon Dan Bilzerian. If you don’t know who he is, check him out on Instagram (guns, girls, private jets, high stakes poker = 20 million followers = NSFW). Among the topics covered: …

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AI, Westworld, and Electric Sheep

AI, Westworld, and Electric Sheep I’m holding off on this in favor of a big binge watch. Certain AI-related themes have been treated again and again in movies ranging from Blade Runner to the recent Ex Machina (see also this episode of Black Mirror, with Jon Hamm). These artistic explorations help ordinary people think through …

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Genetics, Cognitive Ability, and Education (conversation with Cambridge PhD candidate Daphne Martschenko)

Genetics, Cognitive Ability, and Education (conversation with Cambridge PhD candidate Daphne Martschenko) Further conversation with Cambridge PhD candidate Daphne Martschenko concerning genetics of cognitive ability, implications for education policy, etc. See also earlier conversation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVqkvHpLfuQ Dunedin paper referenced in the video (polygenic score prediction of adult success for different SES groups): http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/09/genomic-prediction-of-adult-life.html Tweet

Speed, Balding, et al.: “for a wide range of traits, common SNPs tag a greater fraction of causal variation than is currently appreciated”

I recently blogged about a nice lecture by David Balding at the 2015 MLPM (Machine Learning for Personalized Medicine) Summer School: Machine Learning for Personalized Medicine: Heritability-based models for prediction of complex traits. In that talk he discussed some results concerning heritability estimation and potential improvements over GCTA. A new preprint on bioRxiv has the …

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SMPY in Nature

No evidence of diminishing returns in the far tail of the cognitive ability distribution. How to raise a genius: lessons from a 45-year study of super-smart children (Nature) A long-running investigation of exceptional children reveals what it takes to produce the scientists who will lead the twenty-first century. Tom Clynes 07 September 2016 On a …

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The Pivot and American Statecraft in Asia

Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, critiques the Obama administration’s so-called pivot to Asia. Australian strategists are a good source of analysis on this issue because they are caught in the middle and have to think realistically about the situation. Whenever I see a book or article on this topic …

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Machine Learning for Personalized Medicine: Heritability-based models for prediction of complex traits (David Balding)

Highly recommended talk by David Balding on modern approaches to heritability, relatedness, etc. in statistical genetics. (I listened at 1.5x normal speed, which worked for me.) MLPM (Machine Learning for Personalized Medicine) Summer School 2015 Monday 21st of September Heritability-based models for prediction of complex traits by David Balding Complex trait genetics has been revolutionised …

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Michael Moore: Trump Will Win

Michael Moore received an honorary degree from Michigan State University in December 2014. Said I to the packed Breslin Center: “President Simon, it is my honor to present Michael Moore for the degree Doctor of Humanities.” :-) michaelmoore.com: … I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you …

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Bear baiting is dangerous

What do we have to gain by placing interceptor missiles in Romania? Putin’s concerns are legitimate, and security through Mutually Assured Destruction has always been an unstable equilibrium. Watch the video closely. RT.com: … “At the moment the interceptor missiles installed have a range of 500 kilometers, soon this will go up to 1000 kilometers, …

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The tipping point

This is only the beginning. To serious people who read this blog, but may have been confused over the past 5+ years about things like missing heritability, genomic prediction, complex genetic architecture, gloomy prospects: isn’t it about time to consider updating your priors? Read all about it here. FT.com: Genetic scoring predicts how children do …

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Lake Como and Florence photos

I was in Lake Como for a small meeting of ~30 people, including sovereign wealth, hedge, and pension fund heads, plus a few intellectuals and leading figures from government. Brexit made for extra excitement in our discussions. Hint to scaremongers: the smart money is not as scared as you have tried to make the public. …

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Brexit: victory over the Hollow Men

Congratulations to Dominic Cummings, a formidable man. I met Dominic at SCI FOO in 2014. We talked long into the night, and I came away impressed with his tenacity and capability for long term planning. He urged me to study Bismarck. The Telegraph: The long war: how Vote Leave and the Eurosceptics won “Vote Leave, …

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Arthur Kroeber (Gavekal) on Chinese economy

Highly recommended. Kroeber gives a realistic assessment of the Chinese economy, covering topics such as historical development models, infrastructure investment, debt levels, SOEs vs private enterprise, corruption pre- and post-Xi, demographics, hukou reform, etc. In this episode of Sinica, we present an in-depth interview with Arthur Kroeber, founding partner and head of research for Gavekal …

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EQ, IQ, and all that

This Quora answer, from a pyschology professor who works on personality psychometrics, illustrates well the difference between rigorous and non-rigorous research in this area. Some years ago a colleague and I tried to replicate Duckworth’s findings on Grit, but to no avail, although IIRC our sample size was roughly as large as hers. In our …

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Hemingway’s cafes

WSJ: Hemingway’s Favorite Parisian Cafes, A tour of the literary Parisian cafes Hemingway’s generation made famous. For some reason they don’t mention Les Deux Magots! See also With Pascin at the Dôme: I always wondered who Hemingway had in mind as the dark sister when he wrote the short story With Pascin at the Dôme, which …

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Foo Camp 2016

I was at Foo Camp the last few days. This year they kept the size a bit lower (last year was kind of a zoo) and I thought the vibe was a lot more relaxed and fun. Many thanks to the O’Reilly folks for running this wonderful meeting and for inviting me. My first time …

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Roe’s scientists: original published papers

Gwern has provided scans of the original papers published by Anne Roe on studies of 64 eminent scientists. These papers include details concerning the selection of these individuals and the psychometric testing performed on them. Roe’s scientists — selected in their 40’s and 50’s for outstanding research contributions — scored much higher on a set …

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$1.2 trillion college loan bubble?

See also When everyone goes to college: a lesson from S. Korea. Returns to a “college education” are highly dependent on the intrinsic cognitive ability and work ethic of the individual. WSJ: College Loan Glut Worries Policy Makers The U.S. government over the last 15 years made a trillion-dollar investment to improve the nation’s workforce, …

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