Moore’s Law and AI

By now you’ve probably heard that Moore’s Law is really dead. So dead that the semiconductor industry roadmap for keeping it on track has more or less been abandoned: see, e.g., here, here or here. (Reported on this blog 2 years ago!) What I have not yet seen discussed is how a significantly reduced rate …

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DeepMind and Demis Hassabis

Recent profile in the Guardian; 15 facts about Hassabis. The mastery of Atari games through reinforcement learning deep neural nets is described here (Nature). See also Deep Neural Nets and Go: AlphaGo beats European champion. Guardian: … “We’re really lucky,” says Hassabis, who compares his company to the Apollo programme and Manhattan Project for both …

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Contemplating the Future

A great profile of Nick Bostrom in the New Yorker. I often run into Nick at SciFoo and other similar meetings. When Nick is around I know there’s a much better chance the discussion will stay on a highbrow, constructive track. It’s surprising how often, even at these heavily screened elitist meetings, precious time gets …

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Deep Learning in Nature

When I travel I often carry a stack of issues of Nature and Science to read (and then discard) on the plane.The article below is a nice review of the current state of the art in deep neural networks. See earlier posts Neural Networks and Deep Learning 1 and 2, and Back to the Deep. …

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IQ prediction from structural MRI

These authors use machine learning techniques to build sparse predictors based on grey/white matter volumes of specific regions. Correlations obtained are ~ 0.7 (see figure). I predict that genomic estimators of this kind will be available once ~ 1 million genomes and cognitive scores are available for analysis. See also Myths, Sisyphus and g. MRI-Based …

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Back to the deep

The Chronicle has a nice profile of Geoffrey Hinton, which details some of the history behind neural nets and deep learning. See also Neural networks and deep learning and its sequel. The recent flourishing of deep neural nets is not primarily due to theoretical advances, but rather the appearance of GPUs and large training data …

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Neural Networks and Deep Learning

One of the SCI FOO sessions I enjoyed the most this year was a discussion of deep learning by AI researcher Juergen Schmidhuber. For an overview of recent progress, see this recent paper. Also of interest: Michael Nielsen’s pedagogical book project. An application which especially caught my attention is described by Schmidhuber here: Many traditional methods …

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Minds and Machines

HLMI = ‘high–level machine intelligence’ = one that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human. I’m more pessimistic than the average researcher in the poll. My 95 percent confidence interval has earliest HLMI about 50 years from now, putting me at ~ 80-90th percentile in this group as …

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The Mystery of Go

Nice article on the progress of computer Go. See also The Laskers and the Go master: “While the baroque rules of Chess could only have been created by humans, the rules of Go are so elegant, organic, and rigorously logical that if intelligent life forms exist elsewhere in the universe, they almost certainly play Go.” …

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